Maybe it's because I'm an outsider looking in, but I find the whole German electoral process strangely fascinating. I spoke to the final outcome a little early yesterday, although I was right on the money when I said things were complicated. The results are almost all in, and the will of the people is... completely obfuscated by the system. The analysts are busy analyzing, and the politicians are of course plotting out the fastest way to the top of the heap.
For the incumbent Schröder, this seems to include vociferously insisting that the people have spoken and that he is still Chancellor, by dint of not being the biggest loser. Merkel is lacking the bravura, but so long as Dresden's delayed vote isn't swung out of kilter by the Grünepartei and SPD's anticipated aggressive stumping she still has only a narrow advantage in parliament to work with. Will the greens be swayed from their alliance with the SPD by the indomitable 2002 CSU candidate Edmund Stoiber? The Bavarian governor would need his party's full support for such a plan to move forward, not to mention the FDP's position. Will Schröder attempt to rebuild burned bridges with the newly formed Linkepartei, which garnered a respectable 8.5% overall? The Left certainly holds a card or two in Dresden - a commited voting block and a candidate with an assured seat. Will either Merkel or Schröder concede for the sake of a SPD-CDU union, and would a grand coalition actually function? She has the numeric advantage, but he has the willpower. None of these options is particularly likely, but something has got to happen in the next weeks or there will be no government.
The critical moments will be in the coalition negotiation. Schröder has an ace up his sleeve already, in his insistence that the CDU and it's southern counterpart, the CSU, must approach the negotiating table as separate parties, thus diluting their bargaining clout. That seems a little hard to swallow after the parties campaigned as one, but the loophole requires acknowledgment. If the push is successful, Schröder's next move is still cloudy. Will he aggressively court the bit players and attempt to hold Merkel's alliance off entirely, or will he accept either the CDU or CSU as a partner and shut the other faction out in the cold?
The final tally remains to be seen, but the German population waits with baited breath.
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Wow, I think I like this much better than American politics. Multiple parties? Woo-hoo!
Honestly, If we had more than two parties here, I might even be inclined to affiliate myself with one.
Although I know nothing about German politics, it seems possible that a Merkel chancellorship would perhaps have a slightly better relationship with our own current government. It certainly couldn't hurt.
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